“Its market cap is based on hype and promises versus substance,” said David Cole, an outspoken supporter and investor in Detroit auto makers, and chairman emeritus of the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich.
Says who? Nobody. It’s just a gut feeling. If you own TSLA, you’re banking that Model III will not falter. It will fly, and re-fly. It won’t blow up. And the machine that makes the machine won’t falter either. You’re betting on a massive achievement in engineering.
So it helps when your subconscious mind whispers in your ear about the massive achievements in engineering across town at SpaceX. Building the Model III at scale seems extremely complex, true? So complex, in fact, that the term “rocket science” might enter the discussion between you and yourself. Once that happens, the SpaceX/Tesla connection becomes a thing of great beauty.
As noted here before, car companies have long sought a connection — any connection — with rocket science. Tesla doesn’t have to try awfully hard. Here’s a re-post from December 22, 2015, about this subject:
SpaceX’s immaculate reception last night gives Tesla Motors (and Tesla Energy) a brand boost that Big Auto would love to have, but never will. They’ve tried for decades to associate their cars with rockets and aircraft, especially during the space-happy 1950s and 60s. Space-age design, space-age materials, jet-inspired fins, turbine taillights, cockpit ergonomics.
Well, now we have a car company that actually does share engineering DNA with flying things, since the CEO is a real-life rocketeer who is taking us where no man has gone before. In this case, into repeat orbital rocketry, the first step to a Mars mission.
Where no man has gone before, eh? Sounds familiar. Along that theme, last night’s landing deserved a tweet from Bill Shatner or Leonard Nimoy. Instead, we heard from a Klingon, Jeff Bezos, whose “welcome to the club” tweet makes him and his phallic rocket resemble a possum’s pecker and a possum’s pecker, respectively. He is now dangling meat for social media piranha in his favorite South American river.
Meanwhile, in a New Jersey garage, FedEx trucks are likely dropping off rocket components addressed to Wile E. Geohot, and contractors are probably installing a power-opening skylight.
Is the human ego the real rocket fuel that will propel mankind to a better place? Seems so. Musk seems to thrive on spats with other alpha engineers, journalists and car company chiefs. If toxic tweets end up improving our cars and getting us to Mars, so be they!
Anyway, back to the car/rocket overlap. Here are some erstwhile space-age cars, not including the Batmobile or Jetsons car. TeslaMondo avoids the obvious.
Daimler is stepping way back from its fuel cell ambitions to instead accelerate its EV program, now that Tesla is running circles around Darth Dieter* Zetsche. Tesla’s 25,000 units in Q1 — many of them woulda, shoulda, coulda been Daimler units. And not just any Daimler units, but high-grossing SUVs, the ham sandwiches of automobiledom. Nearly half of those 25k Tesla units were Model X, a much fatter proportion than just a year ago.
When will Toyota, Honda and Hyundai follow Daimler’s lead and scrap their hapless fuel cell ambitions? They’d better make up their minds soon, before the EV train, with Musk at the controls, becomes uncatchable and leaves them standing at the station, index fingers two knuckles deep in their noses. Heck, even bumbling FF is at least trying to play follow the leader. Um, literally.
And hybrids? Puh-leeze. In a few months it will be abundantly clear that the pure EV age has arrived. No need for the half-assedness of hybrids. You can go fully-assed with Tesla for almost the same dough.
*He’s yo’ daddy, you know, for he saved Tesla from the abyss years ago.
Congrats to Musk, Shotwell et al for a giant leap that didn’t carry a historic quote such as “one giant leap” but is tantamount to that moon landing as a milestone in space exploration and general “space excitement.” And congrats to Musk, Straubel et al for the imminent Model III, and Musk, Musk et al for the solar roof debut. And congrats to Musk for launching Neuralink, which could fully uncork the human mind AND even preserve the mind after the body dies. Some of humanity’s greatest thinkers might still be with us, helping us, if their brains were digitized and decoupled — freed, essentially, from the frailty of the human body. Hawking unchained? Better hurry.
Yes, looks like 2017 may go down as a very significant year in Musk’s war on complacency. Oh, congrats for digging holes too. Every boy likes to dig, but the holes usually have zero potential for improving traffic, excepting insect and worm traffic.
But none of this matters. No HUD in Model III? No hatch either? O the shame.
Too early, you say? Well, let’s see. Model X pre-orders began in February of 2012. Meaningful volume production began four years later, much longer than expected. This time around, a four-year incubation period would actually be expected, true? With Model III about to launch two years ahead of its original forecast, Tesla is proving to be a fast learner. Those four years might really become three.
Remember the erstwhile Tesla resale guarantee? Tesla could offer a similar guarantee to Model III buyers: If you turn it in for a Model Y in _________ years, you’ll get at least __________ trade-in value toward a Model Y assuming __________ miles on the odometer and wear/tear under ______________ dollars.
This would keep today’s Model III reservation holders from defecting to the Model Y queue. The III would become an early reservation for a Model Y. A nutty, slapdash idea? Probably, but don’t forget which website you’re reading.
Here’s a Model Y rendering leaked directly from a source at Tesla.
But seriously, Tesla now has such brand cachet that anything will trigger $1,000 deposits en masse. So Y not open the spigot?
A year ago, Tesla’s chief tech officer JB Straubel said Model III will have the company’s “next generation” technology. But today Musk downplayed any notion of Model III upstaging the S and X. Cannibalismo non grata!
So then, wherein lies the truth? Obviously somewhere between Straubel and Musk, but probably closer to the Straubel end of the continuum, because a year ago there was no pressing concern about the S or X getting cannibalized. Loaded terms like “next generation” could leave the lips without repercussion. Sigh. Such innocent times.
So if indeed the Model III sports “next generation” technology, and assuming this goes beyond dry stuff like build-friendly design and myriad efficiency improvements, what’s this all about? Any new James Bond features akin to bioweapon defense, falcon wings, ludicrous acceleration, automatic-opening doors? Hyperspace?
Well, since Model III is super-simple and low-risk, that leaves the user interface and the roof as fertile ground for gee-wiz stuff. The UI is probably a wholly different experience from Model S/X, even without a true heads-up display. Musk did compare it to a spaceship, remember? Was he merely breathing up our pant legs? Unlikely.
And the roof is probably photovoltaic to a useful degree. In fact, TeslaMondo believes Tesla will pioneer photovoltaic density alongside battery density. With time, smaller and smaller surface areas will become more usefully “solar.” Why not start with a car roof?
In a few years, about the only things Tesla won’t be able to solarize will be its Tesla-brand traffic tunnels. Then again, skylights and mirrors could come into play.
Despite a year’s worth of high-profile headlines — in the New York Times, Wired and recently Business Insider — about GM beating Tesla to market with a really good EV, today we learn that the Bolt isn’t selling. Dealers are polarized in their treatment of the car, but neither treatment is generating sales. They’re either discounting the Bolt heavily, or marking them over sticker price while they await buses of super-excited Bolt customers who’ve never heard of Tesla.
It’s clear that Tesla has paralyzed the EV market. No electrified Sonic will break that paralysis. And so the myriad journalists who’ve been writing about the Bolt vs Model III battle obviously made very dumb assumptions about parity between the two cars, and the two companies behind them. Yes, the cars have similar starting prices and range, and yes, both companies make cars. That’s good enough for auto journalists in 2017? Then journalism is beyond dead.
And regarding the calendar, it’s not the chief determinant of who beat whom. Honda scored a similar “calendar victory” over Toyota when the two companies released their first hybrids in the late 1990s. The Insight beat the Prius to the US market by a few months.
And, um, the rest is history.
Looks like Disney’s next Cars flick will have some EV/hybrid characters, including a Model S-alike. Here’s some fun speculation about how Disney will treat “green” cars. Is Disney down with Tesla or not? We’ll see.
Meanwhile, this is a perfect time to revisit this post from a couple of years ago (reprinted below). TeslaMondo reported from Disney’s Epcot Center and found a blatant General Motors influence throughout. Has anyone been to the Epcot Center this year? Is the EV display still the same? Still showing a moldy ol’ Chevy Volt? Is the park still running the General Motors “test track” ride? Does Tesla still have a Model S stationed near the pedestrian entrance — way out in the parking lot instead of inside the park with the other scientific marvels, like Chevies?
Today TeslaMondo is reporting from the Epcot Center. Turns out there’s a renewable energy mini-exhibit, with a wall full of facts/figures about solar energy n’ stuff, and with a Chevy Volt serving as the token EV.
A few steps away sits a big amusement park ride called the Test Track. There’s a big bowtie symbol in front of it. It’s a combination roller coaster and “educational” look at the rigors of General Motors product testing.
A few minutes of Googling reveals GM sponsored a Disney flick called Tomorrowland and product-placed the Volt throughout the movie.
In fact, the two companies go all the way back to the 1964 World’s Fair.
Meanwhile, near the Epcot pedestrian entrance, Tesla has strategically planted a P85D below the monorail. It’s just kinda sitting there, plugged into a generic charger, attracting an occasional gawker.
This little scene — a Volt onstage and a Tesla kicked to the curb — begs an important question about not only the Epcot Center, but any large-scale exhibition that purports to expand our appreciation of the world around us: When do exhibitions cross the line and become “sponsored content”? How much longer can Disney pretend Tesla doesn’t exist? Eventually it will have to cave in and replace the Volt — or perhaps the Bolt — with a Tesla as a valid representation of humanity’s EV frontier.
But this begs another question. Let’s say Disney decides to bite the bullet and make a serious attempt at an EV exhibit. How could it possibly keep the information fresh? No sooner would the paint dry on the exhibit than it would need updating, what with Silicon Valley’s innovative pace. So here’s the ONLY WAY to do it:
Step 1. Replace Chevy product with Tesla product.
Step 2. Install dry-erase whiteboard on the wall.
Step 3. Monitor Tesla’s website daily, and update whiteboard as necessary.
This will ensure accurate information about cost, performance, range, volume, solar integration and so on. But a whiteboard display would look pretty silly, wouldn’t it? No sillier than an adult wearing mouse ears, and Epcot has plenty of those walking around.
TeslaMondo likes Tesla as an investment vehicle, but has no interest in owning the company’s vehicular vehicles.
In 2015, TeslaMondo bought a 2000 Toyota Mr2 Spyder and, a year later, urged all car enthusiasts to make a similar move. Buy an old-school sports car, an elemental machine created purely for motoring pleasure, before such machines, and the art of driving them, both disappear. Buy a horse before they go extinct, basically.
Well, sometimes the Mr2 feels too refined, too slushy, not to mention too large. It’s also too middle-of-the-road ordinary. Where’s the shock value in a Toyota that resembles a first-gen Boxster prototype?
It might be time to turn this knob one more notch, to buy a car so raw, so pure, that the Mr2 is rendered a rolling condominium. Yes, it’s time for the “less is more” mantra to become “the absolute least is the absolute most.” And the absolute least, in many measurable ways, is a Japanese-market kei car. Right away we have a semantics problem, for these aren’t really “cars” by American standards. They’re four-wheel motorbikes powered by tiny, high-revving motorcycle powerplants and wrapped in whimsical car-like bodies. But here’s the kicker: These go-carts are totally legit, designed and assembled by major auto manufacturers instead of your drunken uncle Stan.
Illegal in the US, you say? Wrong. Foreign-market cars of all stripes can be imported and driven in the US — and they’re totally exempt from America’s NHTSA and EPA standards — as long as they’re at least 25 years old. That means these cheeky kei cars, kei vans and kei utility trucks, many costing under $10,000, are yours for the taking. And many have low miles on them.
Who sells them? Importers like Japanese Classics, or JDM Auto Imports, or Montu Motors. They take care of the importation and titling agita. Your only legwork, besides getting the car home, is arraigning insurance and registration. Anecdotal evidence suggests it’s all pretty easy. However, a dry practice run might be a good idea. Advice to self: Run your plans by your insurance agent and local registry to make sure it’s all going to work out.
Here are the Big Four in kei sports cars. Big? Another semantics problem.
The driving experience appears to be at once exasperating and exhilarating. Exasperating because body roll, wheel hop, stability control — puzzles long ago solved in real cars — are unsolved here. Exhilarating because you hear a revvy motorcycle powerplant making motorcycle sounds while you look at a motorcycle instrument cluster and toss around a vehicle that weighs about 600 lbs less than an Mr2 Spyder. Bonus: driving one in the US means you’ve got the novelty factor of a Ferrari F40 — for under $10,000. In fact, there’s a Yamaha kei car with a Ferrari F40 body kit somewhere in Japan:
Safety-wise, we could learn from motorcyclists. Choose a brightly-colored car for maximum visibility, make sure the exhaust is loud, drive very defensively, avoid people’s blind spots, wear a helmet, and don’t drive it in bad weather. Also, if you have a short commute to work, consider wrapping every utility pole with foam padding, just in case. At least you needn’t worry much about a head-on collision with an oncoming car. Kei cars are right-hand-drive, so you can precisely hug the curb. Just watch out for potholes. They’re unkind to 12-inch rims. If an oncoming car does cross the center line, there’s plenty of room for error. That’s because your car is narrower than a Miata. Not by a couple inches. By a foot.
Two words about parts and service: Screw them. Actually, with the growing interest in kei cars, there’s a growing online parts network. And service? Some of these cars might make sense to the service techs at your local Suzuki dealer. Suzuki motorcycle dealer, that is.
So let’s say after five years of enjoyment, the thing craps out. Just pick a spot on your front lawn and push it there. Instant feng shui. Sure beats a pair of chintzy lion statues guarding your front stairs. Don’t you have some fond childhood memories of interesting car corpses in people’s yards? Saab Sonett? Fiat Bertone X19? Renault Le Car? Well, you could have the king of all yard ornaments for a new generation of car kids.
And you’ll still have your Mr2, running flawlessly as always, happy to forgive and forget.