Model S won’t see a second generation

Criswell predicts TeslaMondoTwo summers ago, Criswell suspected the Model S would enjoy an unfairly long shelf life without a “redesign” or even a significant “refresh.”

  • Redesign — When Big Auto spends a lot of money to update a product.
  • Refresh — When Big Auto spends a little money to feign a redesign.

That’s because the Model S has developed into a far better creature thanks to Tesla’s engineering kaizen and OTA update regimen. It’s not the same car that debuted six years ago, period. Not even close. So it’s fresh where it counts.

Yet the car hasn’t changed visually since birth, besides the schnoz. How long can this sameness continue before boredom creeps in and affects sales? And what would a second-generation Model S look like?

There won’t be a second generation.

The current one will go on for a few more years and then die just as interest starts to wane. Tesla can jettison its big sedan and pare its core lineup to the 3, X and Y without losing many, if any, customers. You want something more airy than the 3? Get the Model Y. You want something bigger still? Get an X. You don’t want the SUV profile? Maybe not this year, but you’re more easily persuaded with every passing year. Criswell knows this about you. Right now an SUV might seem like a sedan hampered by tallness. But five years from now, a sedan will seem like an SUV hampered by flatness.

The only problem with this strategy is the falcon wing doors. Some people don’t like them. They’re too fickle. They’re too showy. They preclude a roof rack. So Criswell hereby predicts that a second-generation Model X, with normal doors, will bow within five years and will negate the need for a second-generation Model S.

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5 thoughts on “Model S won’t see a second generation

  1. Bruce Miller says:

    Do you lose cachet if you go from S3XYR (don’t forget the roadster!) to 3XYR?


  2. GS Bower says:

    Mostly sound logic, though I’d be saddened at the loss of S. Amongst other attributes, it is for me the most gorgeous sedan of all time.

    Welcome back. The insights and color you provide are very entertaining. Illeism change noted.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Anonymous says:



  4. Anonymous says:

    I prefer the X for the height – it’s much easier for me to get into and out than the Model S. But the S is still the fastest, so there’s that.


  5. F.Baarda says:

    My prediction: model S will have the constant minor optimisations it is used to and one dashboard make over. The battery will be modernised and it will make te S even more attractive. Exterior will (hardly) change. But te car will rock again. And in Europe (and possibly Asia) SUV’s will never really become dominant.


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