Raise your hand if you thought that by mid-2016, meaning right about now, you’d be safely positioned at a base camp at $300/share, on the way up a limitless mountain that could top $1,000/share barring a horrible blizzard. Yes, right about now you should be sitting pretty and toasting your good judgement a few years back when you put your chips on this longshot, faddish, flash-in-the-pan, vaporware, cultish, Ponzi scheme of a company that dared climb a mountain littered with frozen dead.
But this climb hasn’t unfolded quite so quickly. Every time the company claims a strategic mountainside position, it faces a more daunting passage, and investors focus solely on that more daunting one. Tesla does the same.
Sometimes it feels like we’re investing in delusion à la Don Quixote, or even eternal futility à la Sisyphus. We’ve been stuck around $200 feet above sea level for quite some time now, ascending and retreating as hope and fear duke it out.
Model X was supposed to make Model S look like chopped liver immediately upon release. Hasn’t happened. Then again, it’s barely left the nest. The slow-motion rollout has buffered the X’s impact on the automotive world, and on the stock. Model X as a catalyst? Any shock or awe might be irreversibly diluted due to sheer elapsed time.
What if Model III repeats the cycle? What if it, too, dribbles forth? And what if, during the dribbling forth, Tesla moves to build a second Gigafactory to crank out an even higher-volume car for even less money? It could happen. And so Tesla investors might always be waiting for a jolting, unarguable catalyst that never arrives. Tesla might never explode on the scene. It might never have a Rocky Balboa moment atop a mountain of stairs.
So why stay in the stock? Just wait till next year, um, in perpetuity. That’s why.
“The struggle itself toward the heights is enough to fill a man’s heart. One must imagine Sisyphus happy.” Albert Camus should have worked in the financial sector.