Odd times for Tesla oddsmakers

Odd timing: Last August, Tesla raised capital with a secondary offering. The stock price applauded, while some observers booed Morgan Stanley for publishing bullish words while underwriting the SPO (along with others). Nine months later, ditto, except a lot more capital this time, and a lot more booing — this time for underwriter Goldman Sachs, who bull-rushed the stock just before the SPO announcement and even placed an order for a Model III.

Odd FF: Not Faraday Future. We’re talking Forgiveness Factor. SPOs are supposed to harm sentiment. Ah, but neither Tesla SPO involved a discount, and both came at “logical” moments in the company’s growth plans, so they were seen as aggressive offense, not defense. We own a little less of a much stronger company. Solution outweighs dilution. Just as consumers are ignoring old Consumer Reports when buying Tesla products, investors are ignoring old investing signposts when buying Tesla stock.

Odd contradiction at Tesla: Just a couple weeks ago, Musk tweeted about the importance of placing Model III orders pronto, to ensure delivery in the next couple of years. But now the company says it’s anti-selling Model III, preferring to steer customers to the S and X. TeslaMondo has already called for a temporary moratorium on Model III pre-orders, so this is good. But how do you explain Musk’s almost simultaneous sales pitch on Twitter? And how do you move customers from a $40k vehicle to an $80k vehicle anyway? The word track must be interesting: “Panoramic rear glass in the Model III is no substitute for the proper hatchback and rear jump seats available in the S. Oh, you’re definitely sticking with the III? Let’s talk about that rear panorama.”

Odd contradiction in the press: Model III naysayers, including some enterprising journalists, paint Tesla as inexperienced in auto manufacturing. That means it lacks a notable track record, yes? Heck no. Tesla somehow has a notable track record of delays.

Odd source of business: Remember that Canadian company that floats the $1,000 deposit for a Model III on behalf of its employees? TeslaMondo wondered about a virtuous trend. Well, a small company will now lease a Model III for all of its employees. Does this qualify as a trend yet? It certainly draws attention to these companies as super-savvy. Name one company that doesn’t want to be seen as super-savvy. TeslaMondo again predicts this will spread and cause many head-slaps among Tesla naysayers.

imageOddly oblivious: TeslaMondo is vacationing in Arizona this week and visited the Scottsdale showroom, expecting to see people yanking at the Model X’s floor in search of wires, or tugging at the weatherstripping to see if it would hang, or trying to use the seats as a nutcracker on an infant — all in the spirit of Fortune’s observations, later amplified on Jalopnik. But nope, everyone was far too busy setting up selfies and putting their children inside to play. Lambs to the slaughter, you know. Doesn’t anybody read? Hasn’t anyone seen Jaws?


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