TeslaMondo predictions–a report card

Criswell predicts TeslaMondo(May 26, 2014) Prediction: Gigafactory would come to Reno. Rationale: A detailed comparison of two images. Result: The factory did come to Reno, albeit not on the photographed property. Hey, if SpaceX can successfully land a rocket slightly off target without detracting from the wonder of it all, TeslaMondo can land a prediction a few miles off.

(May 21, 2014) Prediction: Panasonic would soon stop feigning reluctance and sign on as Gig investor. Rationale: Panasonic’s filings showed that its battery supply contracts and home eco solutions were two of the company’s few bright spots, so the company’s wishy-washy sound bites were just a ploy for better Gig contract terms and a show of diligence for Panasonic investors who were a little nervous about this Gig idea. Result: Panasonic Signed up May 23, 2014.

(Oct 1, 2014) Prediction: The “D” was actually a Model S variant. Rationale: Comparison of two images. Result: It was indeed a Model S variant. This post had the highest view count in TeslaMondo’s brief history (almost 7k views).

(Dec 18, 2014) Prediction: Gas prices would have zero impact on Tesla’s business despite Morgan Stanley’s prediction that Model III would suffer. Rationale: Tesla sells excitement first, green cred and gas savings second. Result: TeslaMondo correct. Stanley wrong. So why is Stanley paid better?

(Aug 1, 2015) Prediction: Something fishy in Model X windshield/roof transition. Rationale: Area was inexplicably masked on test mules, and early “nude” photo revealed a conspicuously smooth cranium. Result: Correct. This was one of TeslaMondo’s most-linked posts.

(Oct 23, 2015) Prediction: Model III would generate too many orders, far exceeding anyone’s expectations. Rationale: Chatter among customers at car dealerships, social media. Result: Too many orders indeed. Tesla doesn’t even update the number anymore because it risks becoming a negative instead of a positive.

(Sept. 26, 2105) Prediction: VW diesel weasel scandal would provide a cover for other automakers to zing their dirty laundry along the clothesline without maximum media attention. Rationale: Every automaker is borderline criminal. Result: Raids on offices of Citroen and affiliates, and now Mitsubishi’s disclosure about bullshit fuel economy claims. This screen shot from Automotive News illustrates the buffer effect perfectly.

Screen Shot 2016-04-27 at 6.40.23 AM

Predictions still open:

  • Musk out as CEO around 2017. Seems too early now. More like 2021.
  • Model X will be scalped to $250,000. Well, Ford paid $200k, and here’s a listing for $215k. At this point, with production catching up to demand, the $250k mark seems out of reach.
  • Consumer Reports will give Model III some black dots, but nobody will care. This seems increasingly likely given the muted impact of recent CR notes about Model X problems. Also, Tesla is increasingly compared with Apple. Does anyone expect a new iPhone to be flawless right out of the gate? No. It will need refinements.
  • Tesla to open design process to the public, resulting in a wiki-car. Model III nose design seems a perfect opportunity to experiment with this.
  • FCA CEO Marchionne will regret his open flouting of EVs. Hasn’t happened yet. He’s dissing EVs again, this time while waving a Ferrari flag. Funny, because Ferrari already has a hybrid. If an electric Ferrari is obscene, a hybrid Ferrari is a French late-night cable TV movie from the early 1980s.
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2 thoughts on “TeslaMondo predictions–a report card

  1. Kim Conrad Jorgensen says:

    Nice article, but let’s see your incorrect predictions as well. It’s all interesting.

    Like

  2. […] TESLAMONDO PREDICTIONS, REPORT CARD […]

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