Proof of demand, for peeps who demand it

Tesla Montreal TeslaMondo

Tesla’s big Montreal showroom. Click image for video.

Tesla felt compelled to open its biggest North American showroom this week in Montreal, because of rampant public interest there. A Chicago limo service called E-Motion saw its website crash soon after adding the Model S to its fleet, and had to seek private owners for auxiliary cars. Tesla’s October registrations in the US are up 152% over last October. The Model X is sold out for the first year of production before anyone knows what it will look like or what it will cost. Tesla’s Australia launch event caused ecstatic, hallucinogenic phenomena, such as a mysterious woman taking the stage nineteen seconds into this video. Can anyone identify her?

When you couple this stuff with the recent TSLA sell-off, you get a buying opportunity. Tesla will probably never sell near $200 again after this winter. Sure, it has a little more room to fall this winter, but a lot more room to rise in 2015, especially late in the year amid Model X Mania. Sentiment will again grow hooves as people realize the pump is well-primed the mighty Model 3.

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6 thoughts on “Proof of demand, for peeps who demand it

  1. Tesla’s lofty stock price isn’t about sales of the Model S or even the Model X. What really matters is the Model 3 and with oil headed to $50, that translates to gas at $1.30 (+ plus taxes). At that price, Model 3 economics no longer makes sense in the US, although European markets should do better. China is Tesla’s next big market but remains a big question mark. Even though the horrible pollution common in Chinese cities underscores the need for EVs, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are completely nuts and at any moment can do something totally random and mess up all of Tesla’s plan. As an example just ask Google why they moved all their offices and data centers out of mainland China. Will this happen to Telsa? Who knows but this risk isn’t negligible so has to be factored into the stock price.

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  2. anon says:

    FUD hogwash, @tvillar. If you think oil producers will allow oil to stay at this price you don’t know history.

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  3. theschnell says:

    Oil price almost irrelevant to sell 500k vehicles. Tesla can compete for that extremely tiny piece of total car sales pie because the car itself competes with gas cars in its class on price and performance. It is also more convenient unless you commonly drive over 200 miles a day, because you never have to visit a gas station, and no oil changes. Tesla vehicles are on the opposite side of the spectrum of a Toyota Prius. In the Prius, you compromise performance for good gas mileage. In the Tesla, you compromise range for the convenience of never having to go to the gas station, but you at least equal, if not better performance of any car in its class. And the range compromise is a relatively minor one unless regularly drive over 200 miles a day, and don’t have time to wait for a supercharger.

    By 2020, the only reason oil prices won’t be sky high again (after OPEC is done bankrupting lots of American oil producers with the low prices), will be because other car manufacturers start making competitive ev’s for the mass market. I’m not getting my hopes up on that.

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  4. @anon, The only oil producer that could possibly cut production is Saudi Arabia and they’ve made it clear they are more interested in maintaining market share than pushing the price of oil back up. Until suppliers go bankrupt, oil prices will continue to fall. My guess is Valenzuela, Nigeria and a few American oil shale companies go bankrupt first followed by Iran. Regardless of how it exactly plays out, all this takes time. Plus oil prices traditionally overshot and undershot their price points and therefore takes longer than most commodities to stabilize. We are looking at years before oil is once again above $80.

    None of this is a disaster for Tesla, it just means the stock is going to trade at a more realistic price for a few years.

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  5. anon says:

    @tvillars, even if gasoline reaches $2/gal, I would not buy a car that is dirty, requires me to go to the gas station weekly, and has a high recurring operating cost.

    A tooth fairy tops my car every other night on solar panels. Once Americans realize that they can have this convenience, with service that’s not a profit center, and the bonus of an electric motor performance that a combustion car cannot duplicate, then they’ll know the oil emperor has no clothes.

    Have you ever driven a Tesla?

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  6. […] Proof of Demand, for Peeps Who Demand It […]

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