Lux knows what’s best for Tesla

Gigafactory advice for TeslaThe Gigafactory will result in a modest $2,800 price assist for the Model 3, and Panasonic will get almost nothing out of the endeavor, and Tesla auto demand won’t come close to warranting a half-million cars annually from the Gig. That’s the gist of a new report from Lux Research. Chalk up yet another expert who knows more about Tesla’s business than Tesla knows about Tesla’s business.

* First, it could be argued that nobody on this planet knows more about EV batteries — their cost, chemistry, marketing — than Musk, Straubel and the gang. For more about Straubel’s expertise, see this.

* Second, Panasonic took its sweet time in signing on, suggesting it studied the Gig very carefully. It decided not only to sign, but to request status as sole battery cell partner. But now we’re supposed to believe it’s a wayward child?

* Third, it’s immaterial whether the factory’s output is destined for autos or energy storage, so why fuss about the proportion? It’s all good. Lux already knows energy storage is a big opportunity because it’s already reported such.

* And fourth, Lux hasn’t even seen the production Model X. Nor has anyone else besides Tesla, yet the company is sitting on well over 12,000 pre-orders despite a six-figure average price. And, get this, Tesla is trying to cool demand for the X. Fair to say that Tesla demand is, first of all, not a problem, and second, most likely to be accurately gauged by Tesla, which has done more to identify and invigorate the EV market than any company thus far?

Here are some other “Father Knows Best” entries:

Battery guys know what’s best for Tesla knows what’s best for Tesla

Daimler, Bosch know what’s best for Tesla


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4 thoughts on “Lux knows what’s best for Tesla

  1. Jason says:

    Actually preorders are already over 20,000 for Model X globally:


  2. JonF says:

    I figure I will leave this here which will help with your response to this terrible piece by this “research firm”

    I emailed “Lux Research” on this, but because this is getting picked up and spread around, and I want to dispel the FUD on just the surface of the details they have in this report so here goes…

    The math based on the numbers given just do not add up. Even if the method to come up with 274$/kW is correct (and that is a big IF, there is plenty of evidence to point to them already being below 250$/kW), a 60kW pack (what currently allows for 208 miles of driving) would cost 16,440$. A simple 30% reduction on 274 would be 191.8 (not 196… first major math flaw). This translates into an off the bat change in price to 11,508$ (saving 4,932$… second math flaw… article states only 2,800 cost savings).

    If you followed anything about the products of Tesla you would know that the Roadster which is about 2,000lbs lighter than the Model S has a 45kW battery and is able to get ~245 Miles on a single charge. Since the new Model 3 will not be nearly as heavy as the Model S (for various reasons), and they have said there will be a 30% size reduction overall, it is very likely that the Model 3 will only require around a 45kW pack. 45kW at 191.8 would come to $8,631 which would be close to a 50% cost reduction overall and that would be just on the battery pack by itself.

    I don’t know what your methods are for obtaining your costs, but your report don’t pass a simple math check and therefore should be reviewed for credibility as on the surface it seems dishonest.


  3. rwfahey says:

    Ελληνική με μένα


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