The Gigafactory will result in a modest $2,800 price assist for the Model 3, and Panasonic will get almost nothing out of the endeavor, and Tesla auto demand won’t come close to warranting a half-million cars annually from the Gig. That’s the gist of a new report from Lux Research. Chalk up yet another expert who knows more about Tesla’s business than Tesla knows about Tesla’s business.
* First, it could be argued that nobody on this planet knows more about EV batteries — their cost, chemistry, marketing — than Musk, Straubel and the gang. For more about Straubel’s expertise, see this.
* Second, Panasonic took its sweet time in signing on, suggesting it studied the Gig very carefully. It decided not only to sign, but to request status as sole battery cell partner. But now we’re supposed to believe it’s a wayward child?
* Third, it’s immaterial whether the factory’s output is destined for autos or energy storage, so why fuss about the proportion? It’s all good. Lux already knows energy storage is a big opportunity because it’s already reported such.
* And fourth, Lux hasn’t even seen the production Model X. Nor has anyone else besides Tesla, yet the company is sitting on well over 12,000 pre-orders despite a six-figure average price. And, get this, Tesla is trying to cool demand for the X. Fair to say that Tesla demand is, first of all, not a problem, and second, most likely to be accurately gauged by Tesla, which has done more to identify and invigorate the EV market than any company thus far?
Here are some other “Father Knows Best” entries: